Real estate investors love clarity — and Maricopa County’s Year-to-Date (YTD) 2025 data finally gives us a clean picture of what actually happened this year in the Phoenix metro single-family market. Using ARMLS data through October 2025, we can accurately analyze activity for detached single-family homes only (condos/townhomes/manufactured are excluded).
Below is a breakdown of the most meaningful trends for investors — and what they imply for 2026.
YTD Sold Volume (Detached Single-Family Only): Slightly Up From 2024 — But Below Historical Highs
2025 YTD (Jan–Oct) Sold Volume:
42,468 closed sales (sold listings year to date)
2024 YTD (Jan–Oct) Sold Volume:
40,613 closed sales (sold listings year to date)
YoY Change:
+4.57% (sold listings year to date)
Extrapolated Full-Year Estimate for 2025
Using seasonal patterns (Nov–Dec typically represent 12–14% of annual volume in Phoenix):
- Estimate: 47,500 – 48,200 total detached SFH sales for 2025
- This is slightly above 2024’s full-year total, but still well below the peak years of 2020–2021, when annual SFR sales regularly exceeded 55,000–60,000+ in Maricopa County.
Investor Interpretation
- 2025 saw healthy but not explosive sales activity.
- The increase from 2024 signals improved confidence despite higher rates.
- Investors should see this as a market stabilizing, not declining.
Price Per Square Foot: Flat YTD — A Market in Balance, Not a Decline
Average $/SF YTD 2025:
$294/sq ft (sold listings year to date)
Average $/SF YTD 2024:
$293/sq ft (sold listings year to date)
YoY Change:
+0.35% (sold listings year to date)
Median $/SF is slightly down YoY (-1.03%)
sold listings year to date
Investor Interpretation
- Prices did not meaningfully drop despite higher interest rates.
- Phoenix remains stable and demand-supported, not distressed.
- Great news for BRRR investors: valuations held steady — meaning equity is predictable, even in a high-rate year.
Days on Market (CDOM): Properties Are Sitting Much Longer — Creating Better Buying Conditions
CDOM YTD 2025:
77 days (sold listings year to date)
CDOM YTD 2024:
65 days (sold listings year to date)
YoY Change:
+18.46% (sold listings year to date)
Median CDOM:
Up 21.74% YoY (sold listings year to date)
Investor Interpretation
This is one of the most investor-relevant pieces of data in the entire report.
- Higher CDOM = more negotiating power
- Sellers are adjusting expectations
- Buyers (investors) can be more selective
- Off-market and “weeks on market” deals are increasingly available
- Price reductions (not shown in the PDF but supported by ARMLS trends) become more common when CDOM exceeds 60 days
This is a buyer-friendly market, even though prices remain stable.
Sold-to-List Price Ratios: Sellers Are Negotiating More Than Last Year
Sold-to-Final List Price (YTD 2025):
98.09% (sold listings year to date)
vs.
YTD 2024:
98.42% (sold listings year to date)
Change:
-0.34%
Sold-to-Original List Price (YTD 2025):
95.48% (sold listings year to date)
vs.
YTD 2024:
96.35% (sold listings year to date)
Change:
-0.90%
What This Means for Investors
The drop from Original List Price is far more informative:
- A ~96% ratio means many sellers are overpricing up front, then reducing to meet the market.
- The widening gap between final and original list prices suggests:
- More price cuts
- More softening in seller expectations
- More opportunity for investors to negotiate repairs, concessions, credits, or creative terms
This is EXACTLY the environment in which investors can find profitable acquisitions.
What This All Means for Investors Going Into 2026
A. Demand Is Real (Sales Volume ↑)
2025 wasn’t a slowdown — just a normalization.
B. Prices Held (PPSF Flat)
Contrary to national headlines, Phoenix did not experience broad price declines.
C. Negotiating Power Increased (Sold-to-Original ↓)
Investors can structure better deals than a year ago.
D. Time Is on the Buyer’s Side (CDOM ↑)
Homes are sitting longer — opening the door for:
- BRRR deals
- Light value-add
- Underpriced off-market finds
- Motivated sellers
- Portfolio purchases
- Seller concessions (rate buydowns, closing cost credits)
E. The Market Is Balanced — Not Booming, Not Crashing
This stability is exactly the kind of environment in which long-term investors thrive.
DTD Realty — Do The Deal.
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